LIVE BLOGGING – IDC Press Conference Media and IT Trends 2007 – 2008

I am now at IDC Press Conference about the Israeli  and international IT and Media markets.

I will live blog from there – stay tuned…

Update I

Israel’s IT per capita expenses is a bit behind Ireland, but in GDP numbers we are in a good position. Our market is not going to grow too much. we have 168K tech workers. IT market has 28K employees, and the industry will moderately develop next years. Most organizations in Israel are very small, but most of the expenditure is done by the largest ones. Public sector have 29% of the market, especially defense contracts.

Update II

2008 predictions – software is the the leader, though still below 1 billion dollars. Storage  would slow down as the numbers are declining. In the next five years, half of future IT expenditure are in large organizations. The SOHO – SMB will increase its expenditure as well. Small office does not get the proper attention in integration and products. SaaS and telecom providers can change this market.

Update III

IBM and HP are moving to the SMB market. Green IT is gaining ground. The biggest challenge for CIOs is management of different platforms they need to handle.

Moti Polak from IDC is now talking about CIOs input.

IDC are doing surveys, morning meetings with CIOs and seminars. CIOs can get their market position in context of the market, and use it as a tool for internal discussions.

Three interesting surveys:

1. Virtualization – getting more and more popular, in both large and mid size organizations. Virtualization helps IT managers to have flexible systems and disaster recovery. This area has issues with selling virtualization internally, as the ROI is not in his area (mainly electricity and such, areas that are not in his domain). There are also issues with managing virtual environments

2. Open source – Linux is becoming more and more popular, due to cost saving on software, better performance and better resource utilization. competing with Unix more than with Linux

3. DRP – still very low in Israel. Only in cases where regulation plays a role such as banking the situation is great. In non regulated fields

4. Outsourcing – companies are not willing to base on a single company. Most contracts are signed for one year, and things are not as clear as in the past.

Update III

Dan Yachin talks about emerging technologies.

The main problem of software is its inflexibility to adjust to changes in the business and technology environment. Also there is lack of collaboration inside the organizations, development cycles are too long, inconsistency between environments, no cross platform processes, too many bugs, security is an important problem, salability issues, bad UIs.

Business needs – most CIOs are worried form integrating information from various sources.

IDC believe that the need is to build dynamic applications that will be built for customization. This is achived by various trends:

1. Web 2.0 in the enterprise – give power to the end user to create his own UI and environment. How does that work with Enterprise 2.0? Give the enterprise user the ability to build his own environment. applications are mashups, Flash and Ajax helps creating better UI, social networks help to get information internally, the same for blogs. Mashups and wikis are still not adopted in large numbers.

2. SaaS – 91% are going to adopt it, which will change the way that the market behaves. Smaller companies can get market share, which will change the ecosystem. SaaS value driver will be integration between the small players to create a unified solution to customers. that’s why business development is THE key for market leadership.

3. SOA helps to create a more modular applications, and push this market forward.

How would things work together? they would create an environment of dynamic applications. IDC believe that there is a long tail also here, and small companies can create its vertical applications, as long as it is based on the big guys platforms. Google and Amazon are in this game or sure.

Media update by Gilad Nass

Laptops are still too expensive to be household product, but in the next years we will see more and more laptops, most of them are from friends and family. 67% of houses has at least one computer, 30% of new computers are bought to add another computer. 60% are surfing the web for more than an hour. Another amazing info is that 50% are not using VoIP, but 8% are using it on their mobile devices, either PDA or mobile smartphone. Next year mobile operators will go into wireless broadband based on cellular or WiMax.

Regulators are going to do a lot of noise – naked ADSL should be approved, quad play in Bezeq group, bundled services.

WiMax is looming but not clear that it will happen, and Pelephone are going to UMTS. That will affect Motorola and Samsung, and would increase its expenditure on customer acquisition. iPhone won’t be a great success here.

Israelis would download more media online, as there is no way to do it legally.

UGC would decline, professional content would get into the market.  Broadcasters would increase their online presence. IDC do not see the mid tail and semipro content as a market segment. They also believe that regulators will go into this field, and some will try to take money on content. ALL SURVEYS SHOW THAT PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY FOR GOOD CONTENT. 

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11 Responses to “LIVE BLOGGING – IDC Press Conference Media and IT Trends 2007 – 2008”

  1. 1 Lior Sion December 25, 2007 at 3:29 pm

    Great report, thanks Kfir. I wonder how they came up with the last point – that UGC would decline.. is it based on anything real or just wishful thinking?

  2. 2 Kfir Pravda December 26, 2007 at 8:17 am

    Lior, this year many started to wonder if UGC can fulfill its promise. While perceived as the answer to all content problems, the economical value of this segment is still questionable at best.
    See – they covered this topic, as well as Om Malik. My take is that like every hype, people start to understand what works and what not – the same would happen with Facebook…

  3. 3 Asaf Lev December 26, 2007 at 12:50 pm

    Lior shalom,
    We will be happy to explain our predictions, you can contact me directly to discuss,
    Asaf Lev

  4. 4 Lior Sion December 26, 2007 at 10:12 pm

    Asaf – email was sent..

    Kfir – I’ll read the stuff on the links you’ve sent, but no matter what they say, I can’t see a way someone can say this s a hype that doesn’t work so fast, it’s been a hype for too short, and these things take time. Otherwise, the internet wouldn’t be here, ads on the internet wouldn’t be here, video will not work on mobile and on the net, etc. etc.

    Btw, since you do know video, then video on mobile and on the net has been around a lot more than UGC. Was it buried already as well?

  5. 5 Kfir Pravda December 27, 2007 at 8:18 am

    Lior – no one is saying that UGC is worthless, but unlike in the past sites and media companies understand that it is not the answer to everything including world hunger. Sure, it takes time, but in the last couple of years everyone were talking about death of TV due to UGC and now people understand that this is not the case and won’t be the case for long time.
    Re video – mobile data was a promise in 1998. Only now things start to happen that make mobile data as a reasonable replacement to other data channels. Video conferencing is still a niche market.
    The main problem with hype is that it promise false promises. iPhone didn’t change the telecom world as we know it – it made a tiny dent. UGC didn’t kill TV, nor killed the need to have content people in websites – it just created a new business model with limited though important effect.

    Re time – you know how it is in large companies. when they see a hype they mobilize budget to it. when it doesn’t fulfill its promise – they see it as a financial blow. they need to think in Q….

  6. 6 Lior Sion December 27, 2007 at 10:18 am

    Kfir – I completely agree. I think we need to pay careful attention to the lesson though: technology (and lets say UGC is technology, or a new(er) concept if you will) doesn’t disappoint us – it’s marketing that does – by promises of fast change that don’t fullfill themselves. It takes time, it always takes time.

    Or is it human psychology that expects rapid change when it doesn’t exist?

    We can look at the past with cellular phones – how long did it existed before the change took place (and today everyone knows it did). I didn’t hear anyone that claimed the iPhone would change the world as we see it and again it would surprise me if anyone thought that – iPhone didn’t bring such a big change.

    UGC is an amazing change. It WILL change everything. It will not be the end of older things, as people often mistakenly think – Web2.0 is NOT instead of Web1.0, they co exist. There will be ups and downs to UGC as people slowly understand what they can and can’t do (in both directions: what they can add to the pool, and what they can take from it), as recommendation engines improve, rules are set, hype slowly subsides, and read value emerges.

  7. 7 Kfir Pravda December 27, 2007 at 11:47 am

    Lior – agree about the marketing part, just note that some say that UGC was there for ages – it was called forums… And happy birthday 🙂

  8. 8 Reut January 4, 2008 at 6:33 am

    Hi Kfir,
    lovely report from the conference. most interesting. regarding legal options for downloading – i was just hypothesizing to myself , but since media companies are offering internet access already (cables companies, and not just in israel of course) wouldn’t it be logical to offer a personal internet account for each customer/viewer – and provide downloading capabilities ?
    the companies can have pre-bulk billings with current TV-Movie-media conglomerates (which they have business relations now days anyways, because they purchase tv series, broadcasting rights etc), they can tunnel the downloading through them and hoard any statistical/marketing/users characteristics for later use.

    since high bandwidth will become common, the users wont have no more the question of – do i want to buy a 5++ MB bandwidth with ADSL or whatever – why would the user be interested in the technology particulars anyway ?? and so –
    a media company can offer setting up an internet service for the private user, free of charges, except for a monthly bill which will reflect how much and what do you download not the bandwidth you’re using. then the user has media centre -> choses -> downloads ->everyone knows what was downloaded, everyone happy.

    from Sydney (at the moment)

  9. 9 Kfir Pravda January 4, 2008 at 9:07 am

    Reut – I think that logic is the only thing missing in media companies behavior online. check out this post –

  1. 1 Based Conferencing Web » Blog Archive » LIVE BLOGGING - IDC Press Conference Media and IT Trends 2007 - 2008 Trackback on December 25, 2007 at 3:39 pm

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